The origin of life is not a lottery

September 23, 2010

The origin of life is not a lottery

Posted by Jason Dulle under Apologetics, Evolution, Intelligent Design, Science
[50] Comments

In a previous post I argued that chance cannot account for the origin of the first living cell because the odds are too low to have any reasonable chance of being met. The odds of a single, functional protein forming by chance is 1 in 10¹⁶⁴. That’s 1 chance in 100 trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion. But the simplest life form would need at least 250 different proteins, lowering the odds to 1 in 10^41,000!

While the numbers appear staggering, many people will immediately raise the “lottery objection”: Just as the odds of winning the lottery are low, and yet people win the lottery all the time, so too the odds of forming life by chance may be low, but that doesn’t mean it is impossible. While I understand the analogy, are the lottery and the OOL truly analogous? No, not by a long shot.

The odds of life forming from non-living substances by chance cannot be legitimately compared to the odds of winning the lottery for the following reasons: (1) the odds are exponentially lower for forming life by chance; (2) the probabilistic resources required to overcome the odds of winning the lottery are vastly different than the probabilistic resources required to overcome the odds of life forming by chance.

What are “probabilistic resources?” This is a fancy term that refers to the number of opportunities available to meet any given odds. Perhaps the following illustration would help elucidate the relationship of odds to probabilistic resources:

The odds of someone guessing the correct combination of a 5-dialed lock (each dial containing 10 digits) are 1 in 100,000. What are the chances that someone can open the lock without knowledge of the combination? It depends on the number of attempts they are allowed (the probabilistic resources). If they are only allowed one try, the odds are vastly against them being able to open the lock. If they are allowed 100,000 tries, however, it is virtually certain that they will be able to open the lock.

Now, let’s talk life and lottery for a moment. The odds of someone winning the lottery are actually quite high, but only because the probabilistic resources are high. In a lottery, the length of time it takes someone to win depends on the number of numbers you have to match (the odds get exponentially lower for each number added), the number of players, and the frequency of the drawings. Let’s take a concrete example. The odds of winning the Mega Millions lottery is about 1 in 176,000,000 (1:10⁸). If 30,000,000 people play each week, and each person buys a single ticket representing a unique combination of numbers, the odds of someone winning the lottery in the next drawing are 1 in 6. Because the probabilistic resources are so high for lotteries, the odds that someone will win can be easily met (someone wins the Mega Millions jackpot once every 4 weeks on average).

The same is not true of the origin of life, however. There is an immense gap between the odds of forming life from non-life and the probabilistic resources available to meet those odds. As noted previously, the chance of forming the most basic life form is a staggering 1 in 10^41,000. Could those odds be met given enough time? No, because there are not enough probabilistic resources available in the entire known universe to give it even a reasonable shot of happening. How do I know this? If we take the number of seconds since the Big Bang (10¹⁶), and add to that the number of elementary particles in the universe (10⁸⁰), and add to that the number of particle interactions per second (10⁴³), we can figure out the total number of events in the whole history of the universe. It turns out to be a whopping 10¹³⁹ events. Written out, that’s 10,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

That’s a huge number, but still a far cry from 10^41,000! Written out, 10^41,000 is 100,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
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000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
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000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,|
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000. No, my computer keys did not get stuck—that’s the actual number!

This means the total number of events throughout the whole history of the universe is less than 1 out of a trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion trillion of the total number of events needed to give the origin of life even a 50% chance of success!

I think it should be clear that the origin of life is nothing like the lottery. Not only are the odds immensely higher for winning the lottery, but the probabilistic resources are so abundant that it makes it certain that someone will win (and they do, over and over again). The odds for creating life from non-life by chance are magnitudes of order lower than winning the lottery, and the probabilistic resources are magnitudes upon magnitudes fewer than the probabilistic resources available for the lottery. This is why mathematicians trained in probability theory can confidently conclude that life could not have arisen by chance.

000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,

000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
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000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000.

50 Responses to “The origin of life is not a lottery”

Michael Roberts Says:

September 23, 2010 at 6:26 am
So what are you saying? How do you think life came about…

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James Anderson Says:

September 23, 2010 at 7:49 am
Good article. Thanks for posting that data

…life did not arrive here by a lottery or chance. It was designed by The Designer.

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jasondulle Says:

September 23, 2010 at 11:06 am
Michael,

If neither chance nor law are capable of producing the information necessary for even the most basic form of life, then it must be designed.� We know by experience that intelligent agents routinely produce complex, specified information.� See the series of blog posts that I linked to in this post (I linked to one post in that series, but there are 6 or 7 more).

Jason

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 23, 2010 at 4:14 pm
Jason

Don’t even both with Intelligent Design.

I guess your going to say humans are intelligently designed? Then why is the resolution of our eyes very poor…why can we only see a small fraction of the electromagnetic spectrum…why do we have an appendix?? why is child birth so painful?? intelligent design goes against both science and your own theist beliefs. And we also have wisdom teeth, the coccyx…adenoids..male nipples!! not to mention the sinus passage is famous for infections. If this is intelligent then God is an idiot.

Evolution shows that chance plays a major role not matter how much you avoid the evidence and fail to learn more about it before performing a critique.

Nobody here has probabl read a single book on evolution or biology!

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 23, 2010 at 4:16 pm
And my spelling was awful because I’m so annoyed…I can’t believe I’m reading this sort of religious propaganda in 2010!

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 23, 2010 at 4:25 pm
I do have respect for your beliefs Jason. I myself, I’m not against religion, I’m not athiest (more Agnostic), I’ve read the Bible cover to cover and work by Charles Darwin and other such ethologists and biologists, I’m also a cosmologist and physicist by degree.

But you have to see the evidence, no species is perfectly designed.

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Arthur Says:

September 23, 2010 at 5:53 pm
Jason,

You’re argument, in essence, is that the origin of life by chance is very improbable, thus we should accept the impossible by default.

To quote Sir Arthur Conan Doyle:

“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”

Arthur

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creationbydesign Says:

September 23, 2010 at 6:24 pm
Sure, it’s a small chance, but people win the lottery all the time.

Great. We see same person winning the lottery 100 consecutive times. No problem at all!

Nice post. The visual does make a strong impact. 🙂

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jasondulle Says:

September 24, 2010 at 12:19 am
Michael Roberts,

Sub-optimal design is not the same as the absence of design. Ever seen a Pinto? Sub-optimal design is still design. Besides, to say something is sub-optimally designed presumes to know the objectives and purpose of the designer, to know how the design fell short of the objectives and purpose. The fact of the matter is that all designs are sub-optimal. Physical reality requires trade-offs in design. For example, designers of cars must balance size, performance, and luxury. If you want more performance, you have to make the car bigger. If you want more fuel economy, you have to compromise on size. If you are aiming for affordability, then luxury will be sub-optimal.

If you think supposed examples of bad design in the biological world indicates that the entity in question was not designed, are you willing to accept examples of good design as evidence that they were designed? What’s good for the goose is good for the gander.

And I have read books on evolution and biology. My latest read was Jerry Coyne’s Why Evolution is True.

Jason

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jasondulle Says:

September 24, 2010 at 12:22 am
Michael Roberts,

To call this post “religious propaganda” is a cheap shot. I am making an argument based on science and mathematics, not offering propaganda. And since my argument is not based on religious premises, why even call it “religious?”

Jason

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jasondulle Says:

September 24, 2010 at 12:25 am
Michael Roberts,

A physicist and cosmologist! I am very interested in cosmology. What is your area of expertise? Do you mind if I ever run some technical questions by you in the future regarding these fields?

Jason

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 24, 2010 at 4:00 am
Hi Jason

It is a form of propaganda because you havent cited any sources or references, which is a must for a scientific argument. (In other words, people who agree or make the same argument as you.)

Sub-Optimal design clarifies my point, God is supposedly all-powerful, so why would he make all animals sub-optimal in some way?? However, evolution provides very clear reasons why humans and other animals have these design flaws. Also, should you therefore change intelligent design to sub-optimal design from now onwards? As so people understand there is nothing intelligent about it.

Well, cosmology is a specialist field in its own right, I’m also well versed in astrophysics so hit me with any questions at any time! (Even one’s on Big Bang Cosmology…a topic which you could probably stump me on! i.e. What happened before? or How does nothing come from something?) 😀

Just to say, I’m not athiest but agnostic, but I do not believe in the Judo-Christian God.

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Scalia Says:

September 24, 2010 at 12:11 pm
Michael Roberts wrote,

It is a form of propaganda because you havent cited any sources or references, which is a must for a scientific argument.

Jason’s very first sentence of this thread contains a link to a previous thread wherein he cites his source (Stephen C. Meyer, Signature in the Cell). In this thread, Jason is merely taking the previously referenced information and applying it to the “lottery” objection.

Michael further writes,

Sub-Optimal design clarifies my point, God is supposedly all-powerful, so why would he make all animals sub-optimal in some way??

As a trained physicist and cosmologist, I think you can follow an argument. The subject of this thread is the Lottery Objection. If you understand Jason’s argument and disagree with his conclusion, please tell us why. If you want to argue evolution in general, you should probably click the appropriate thread in Jason’s blog and argue your views there. The “flawed design” argument is one of the most common objections to ID — and has been rebutted time and again.

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 24, 2010 at 12:22 pm
I’m not very well-versed in evolution, but its a pretty well documented theory that has made biblical stories redundent to most free-thinking scientists. (It doesn’t make God redundent, just the Christian biblical version of God…that must be made clear!)

Could you not accept that the Bible is wrong? And has been proven wrong historically, scientifically, geographically, biologically and philosophically…

Could I ask you why your so unwilling to re-analyse your position in the light of so much evidence? Do you really think all the species of animal we see today were placed on a wooden ark in two by two (or whatever it was, it wasnt actually in pairs, I think it was perhaps in sevens).

Wouldn’t the lions eat the zebra?? ;P

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Scalia Says:

September 24, 2010 at 2:18 pm
Michael, I am not certain to whom Post 14 is addressed, but if you are addressing it to me, I again remind you of this thread’s topic. Since the questions you ask are off-topic, I will not answer them, except to say I disagree with what you imply.

Do you care to engage Jason’s argument? If not, I will not reply to any more of your posts.

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 24, 2010 at 3:07 pm
Scalia: They were intended for Jason.

But seeing that you don’t want to answer them I’ll assume you cant.

This is where us scientists are leading the debate to be frank, we answer questions…intelligent designers or theologians dont answer them, they say they can but when it comes to it they walk away from the debate. And ID is refuted by just about every Natural Scientist on this planet!

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Scalia Says:

September 24, 2010 at 3:38 pm
Well, I said I wouldn’t reply to another irrelevant message from Michael, but I’ll diverge from that, if just momentarily.

Michael writes,

But seeing that you don’t want to answer them I’ll assume you cant.

Oh, please. Your comments are completely off-topic. If Jason wants to pursue this line of dialog with you, that’s his prerogative, but participants should stay within a thread’s subject. My refusal to go off on your personal tangent has no bearing on my ability to reply thereto.

Since you’ve forgotten, there are plenty of threads within this blog that discuss evolution. If you care to post there, you’ll get relevant replies.

Since you continue to refuse to discuss this threads topic, I’ll have to “assume you can’t.”

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 24, 2010 at 4:26 pm
Jason has tagged this article with evolution, science, intelligent design and apologetics Scalia, so I’m sure its not off topic. Its so on topic to be honest.

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 24, 2010 at 4:43 pm
I’m basically refuting intelligent design, because there is no evidence for it, in fact, the evidence is against it. I managed to get Jason to move the goal posts by admitting that intelligent design is probably best suited to being called Sub-Optimal design. I then challenged him on why God would make anything sub-optimal…?

I then went on to say that Judo-Christian philosophy and teachings are almost certainly wrong via so many different fields. Because he is a theologian.

I will also now wade in on the mathematics Jason has used, the probability he has quoted is fundamentally wrong. Proteins form all the time in nature, ask any scientist. They form in our bodies all the time via random processes…so the foundations for the probabiltiy are fundamentally wrong.

Lets start shall we??

Right, the number of seconds since the big bang is 432,329,886,000,000,000, which is 4.32^18. NOT 10^16. The number of particle interactions per second is not 10^43, from WMAP is more likely to be 10^8000. The number of particles he has quoted is for hydrogen only, which makes up 73% of normal matter in the Universe. We have to make our calculation from quarks, which leaves (10^80)^3. Not forgetting electrons and photons. The figure is now growing. The amount of photons is mindblowing. My estimate is 10^3170000000000. Much bigger than 10^41000 im sure youll agree.

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 24, 2010 at 4:46 pm
or 1/(10^41000) which is the probability. i.e. 1 in 41000 chance of the main 250 proteins forming in the Universe. Intelligent design, its more elementary probability. Chance.

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Scalia Says:

September 25, 2010 at 11:53 am
Michael, since Posts 19 & 20 are an attempt to stay on topic (well, sort of), I suggest you read the series Jason has linked to (his review of Stephen C. Meyer’s Signature in the Cell).

I also suggest you read Meyer’s book (if you’re really looking for evidence of design). If you would rather not read his book, at least read the comprehensive summaries of that work that Jason has written (also linked in this blog). This will save a lot of time and repetition.

If you really have the training you claim, you’ll have no trouble wading through the series, grasping the arguments contained therein, and constructing a cogent reply.

Regards.

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 25, 2010 at 3:11 pm
As far as I’m concerned Scalia, I’ve read many books on ID and evolution, and evolution is the theory which the top 99% of educated scientific scholars accept to be the truth.

I would love their to be intelligent design, but the evidence is just not there.

However, as a closing remark: ID was a theory created to prop up a pre-conceived idea of humanity i.e. that we were created via a God. Whereas natural selection and evolution came about via evidence.

I.D. is just creationsim repackaged and I, like many other people, see it for what it really is.

I.D. is a religious movement, whereas evolution is a theoretical scientific idea propped up via EVIDENCE. STRESS ON THE EVIDENCE. The failure to follow the procedures of scientific discourse and the failure to submit work to the scientific community that withstands scrutiny have weighed against intelligent design’s being considered as valid science.

Your the case in point Scalia, you just want me to go away and read a book on it. I’m challenging you to provide more evidence to the I.D theory, but because they are not there, we’re just going round in circles.

So, again, thanks for the article Jason. But I disagree with all the points raised.

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Scalia Says:

September 25, 2010 at 4:27 pm
So typical. You, sir, came here to argue irrelevant material. You accused Jason of failure to cite sources when his first sentence did just that. You pretend to reply to the topic of this thread when you’ve demonstrated by your replies you do not understand his argument. You falsely accuse me of wanting you to “go away” when nothing is further from the truth. If you truly want to have rational dialog, then read the links in the series that led to this most recent thread and we can proceed. There’s no point rehashing well-trodden territory.

You claim to have read ID material, but nothing, and I mean NOTHING you’ve written here indicates the most remote acquaintance with ID literature, except caricatures thereof from opponents.

I’ve debated this issue time and again, so don’t think you’re scaring anybody away. You’re the one arrogantly slashing away at something that had nothing to do with the topic of this thread and you expect everybody here to bow to your condescending “99%” argument.

Try to show the least bit of respect for people who disagree with you and you might get some of it in return. I guess they don’t teach manners at your school.

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Arthur Says:

September 26, 2010 at 8:06 am
Jason writes:

“While the numbers appear staggering, many people will immediately raise the ‘lottery objection’: Just as the odds of winning the lottery are low, and yet people win the lottery all the time, so too the odds of forming life by chance may be low, but that doesn’t mean it is impossible.”

It’s not simply that the unlikely remains possible. Any person in the lottery has a very tiny chance of winning. Whomever wins will think “it couldn’t have been me by chance, the odds are too small.” But somebody would have to win. Every possible outcome is always extremely unlikely.

If I create a computer program and have it generate a number randomly between 1 and 10 to the 139th power (what you call the number of events in history), it will generate some number. Whatever number is randomly generated will be so unlikely that “it couldn’t have happened by chance.” But we know for a fact that it was randomly generated.

Percentage chances are only useful where the prediction is made before the fact. For example, if somebody were floating in the sky predicting life would evolve on Earth and result in this particular blog on the internet, and billions of years later it happened exactly that way then we could conclude that it couldn’t have been just a lucky guess due to the odds involved. But we have no such predictions, just after-the-fact realities, all of which necessarily have extremely low odds.

Arthur

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Scalia Says:

September 26, 2010 at 3:36 pm
Hello again, Arthur! You write:

It’s not simply that the unlikely remains possible. Any person in the lottery has a very tiny chance of winning. Whomever wins will think “it couldn’t have been me by chance, the odds are too small.” But somebody would have to win. Every possible outcome is always extremely unlikely.

Yes, that is correct, but please look at this a little more closely. If the odds of the INITIAL, single, functioning protein forming by chance is, let’s say, 1 in 10, that means of ten balls in a box, nine of them being black and 1 of them being white, it is more likely you’ll pull a black ball at random than a white one. However, if there are a thousand balls (1 white, 999 black), the odds of pulling the white one at random are far less. The higher the number, the less likely you’ll pull a white one. One eventually reaches a statistical point of impossibility. Although it is still mathematically possible, it is practically impossible.

You are correct in noting that any ball pulled at random is equally unlikely, but that is not the point. If only one of them (of thousands, billions, trillions, etc.) represents the “chance” formation of a single, functional protein, then it isn’t a matter of the statistical equality of any picked ball. Only one of them is white and it is the only one that can produce life. If Arthur comes along and puts his hand into the bag, it isn’t the case of picking any ball, he must pick the white one; and the more balls there are, the more unlikely you’ll pick the white one.

A skeptic may reply that, given enough time to pick ball after ball, one will eventually pull the white one. It is Jason’s assertion that there isn’t enough time since the Big Bang to produce a white ball. This, of course, initiates an argument over whose numbers are correct; but, at the very least, the “chance” hypothesis has a probability factor that is low.

However, it must be remembered that Jason is reviewing Meyer’s Signature in the Cell, and one must be familiar with either Meyer’s work or Jason’s summaries thereof in order to understand the argument. Given Meyer’s book, the critical reviews thereof, and Meyer’s, etal, replies thereto, it appears he has more than held his own against his severest critics. It is especially amusing to read critical reviews from scientists who haven’t even read his book! Of course that betrays their bias and their commitment to oppose any theory that challenges what they prefer to believe.

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creationbydesign Says:

September 27, 2010 at 6:23 am
Any person in the lottery has a very tiny chance of winning. Whomever wins will think “it couldn’t have been me by chance, the odds are too small.” But somebody would have to win. Every possible outcome is always extremely unlikely.

The lottery analogy is incorrect for the reason given in the bolded text I quoted. Notice, “somebody would have to win”.
That is what happens in an artifical situation where a system picks a winner. That’s an intelligently designed system. There are many random numbers — then an intelligent agent picks one. A question about how that winner overcame “odds” at that point is irrelevant. It was already 100% certain that a number would be picked. This is not true in the random lottery of life. There is no intelligent agent which necessarily must pick one choice. The most probable outcome is that nothing at all happens. With a lottery, this is impossible. One number will necessarily be chosen by a human being.
Why not let nature itself select a lottery winner without human agency? Remove any mechanism for choosing a number and just wait billions of years for a number to appear with the label “this is the lottery winner”. It “could” happen, right?
This tells us a lot since the lottery analogy is so common. Why would such a weak argument be propped up as if it’s an “answer” at all? Clearly, the evidence given in this post is irrefutable and a completely false analogy is the best response that critics can come up with.

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Arthur Says:

September 27, 2010 at 5:43 pm
Scalia,

I believe you misunderstand my point. You write:

You are correct in noting that any ball pulled at random is equally unlikely, but that is not the point… Only one of them is white and it is the only one that can produce life. If Arthur comes along and puts his hand into the bag, it isn’t the case of picking any ball, he must pick the white one; and the more balls there are, the more unlikely you’ll pick the white one.

Let’s say the white ball represents Edna C. Johnson and the black balls each represent different individuals in the lottery. I reach in the bag… I will pull out something. And nobody (other than those personally involved) cares whether it’s the white ball or one of the others. The only person who cares about the white ball is Edna. None of the balls is any better, worse, or even special than any of the other balls.

In real life, nobody has colored the “life” ball a different color than the others. The life ball is no better, worse, or even special than any of the other balls.

Go back in time millions of years and ask, “what are the odds that there will be a country on the North American continent with a democratic government called the United States that has a sports league called the National Football League that has a team called the San Francisco 49ers?” The odds are incredibly slim. But if people were around millions of years ago, they would never ask that question. They wouldn’t care. Every potential outcome is always “impossible,” and none of the potential outcomes is better than the others.

When you write, “if Arthur comes along and puts his hand into the bag, it isn’t the case of picking any ball, he must pick the white one,” why should I care which ball is selected? It seems to me that nobody painted any of the balls white until after the one ball was selected.

Arthur

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Scalia Says:

September 27, 2010 at 10:07 pm
Hello again, Arthur!

The reason we care about the white ball is it is the only option available for the creation of life. It isn’t akin to the unpredictable choices of human beings. Intelligent agents designate land masses like North America, create pastimes like football, create entities that are identified with that pastime (49ers), and organize said pastime by creating a league (NFL). Without intelligent agents, the things you mention wouldn’t exist, even with respect to North America (because mindless objects do not name land masses). So, it appears your counter illustration confirms our argument. The things you mention could not occur without intelligent agents.

With respect to odds, recall the fine-tuning of the universe (constants of nature and arbitrary physical quantities) must fall within a very narrow province of values for life to exist. This isn’t controversial, and the options are logically limited. It either arose by physical necessity, chance or by design. There doesn’t appear to be any other option. Penrose calculated that the odds that chance is the explanation for the universe’s initial low-entropy state is 1 out of 10^10(123). Take dice that have letters instead of numbers. Take enough dice to reproduce every letter in our alphabet thousands of times. Put all the dice into a bag and shake it up. Release the number of dice corresponding to number of letters in the 23rd Psalm. What are the odds they’ll land in the appropriate spot, with appropriate spacing, exactly as found in the Bible? Pretty slim, huh? Again, we’re not just talking about any arrangement. We’re talking “specified complexity.” If you’ve read Jason’s review of Meyer, you know what I’m getting at.

Kind regards.

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Arthur Says:

September 28, 2010 at 8:42 pm
Scalia,

I think we’re talking past each other. One last try…

You write: The things you mention could not occur without intelligent agents.

That’s true but it’s beside the point. If you’d prefer, substitute any tornado that touched down in North America in 2010 and knocked over a tree. No human agency. Now calculate the odds of there being a tornado hitting at that particular spot on that particular second of that day in 2010, and there being a tree at that very foot of land, with that exact number of branches and that exact number of leaves and which had been growning for exactly that number of milliseconds, etc, etc… The odds are so incredibly small as to make it “impossible to have happened by chance!”

But that particular tornado hitting that particular tree, like life originating in this universe, was not predicted ahead of time. It’s something that was observed after the fact. But every event is unlikely to the point of virtual impossibility when the odds are calculated after the fact. There’s no need to obsess over “impossibility” of that tornado and that tree; after-the-fact odds don’t matter.

Before the universe existed, if somebody had predicted that the universe would be hospitable to life as we know it and that life as we know it would appear on Earth, then the odds of that prediction becoming true would be so small that we’d have to conclude it’s fulfillment wasn’t the result of chance; either the person making the prediction caused it or had some special way of knowing the future.

But as far as I’m aware of, nobody made such a prediction before the universe came into existence. So the odds don’t matter.

Arthur

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Scalia Says:

September 28, 2010 at 11:06 pm
Hi, Arthur. I believe I understand what you are saying, so I don’t think we’re talking past one another. To support your argument, you used a football counterexample. Recall there appears to be but three logical options with respect to the origin of life: chance, necessity, or intelligence. Your counterexample excludes chance and necessity, so I think you’ll agree it wasn’t a very good one.

Against this you argue that anything occurring within the universe has an equally small likelihood of occurring, and this is the crux of our disagreement. You see no difference between specified complexity and mere randomness.

Jason’s post addresses the Lottery Objection. He supports his argument, in part, by asserting the probabilistic resources for overcoming lottery odds are vastly different than those for the chance formation of life. One in six odds are far better (practically guaranteeing a winner), than those required for the random formation of life. Under this thread, you appear to merely restate the lottery objection without engaging his argument. If that is the case, his argument holds.

While looking at his previous review of Meyer, I remembered you have already had this discussion with Jason. For those interested, Jason and Arthur’s debate may be read HERE. Moreover, Jason also interacted with you HERE with respect to specified complexity (functional specificity) and randomness.

I won’t attempt to restate or rehash the debate, except to say Jason had already used the “ball” (marbles) analogy.

Since you and Jason have walked this path, and since those interested may peruse the back-and-forth, there’s no need for me to anything further. The issues have been staked; it is up to the reader to decide what is more persuasive.

Thanks for the dialog, Arthur. All the best to you.

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creationbydesign Says:

September 29, 2010 at 7:22 am
If we dismiss any after-the-fact oddsmaking, then we have a good basis for claiming that everything happened by lucky chance.

We see something in nature. What are the odds that it got there by random chance?

Well, it doesn’t matter. It exists, therefore it was the one chance in a billion.

But it obviously doesn’t work that way. Take a look at evolutionary theory and see how certain probabilities (or impossibilities) are explained by changing the theory itself (convergent evolution, self-organization, etc).

A tornado knocking down a tree is not a very remote chance occurrence. We observe tornadoes hitting trees all the time.

In fact, we could predict if a tornado, given certain physical measurements, would hit any particular tree.

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Scalia Says:

September 29, 2010 at 10:55 am
creationbydesign wrote,

But it obviously doesn’t work that way.

True. I think what hangs some people up here is the fact that these odds are offered to demonstrate that of the myriad “kinds” of universes that could have been, the one we have is practically impossible under the chance hypothesis. They have a difficult time seeing why the life-scenario is different.

Universe A has only green stars, Universe B has only red stars, Universe C has only two galaxies…to a billion universes, but none of them can produce life. The calculation of odds is designed to determine the probability of a life-forming universe. Hence, although Arthur is correct to observe that any universe is highly unlikely, practically all of them except one will be lifeless. That’s where the black balls (or red marbles) come in. Although picking any ball (marble) out of a bag is statistically equal with respect to each ball, the odds that you will pick a black (red) ball is virtually guaranteed. In other words, although each individual universe is equal with respect to number, it is overwhelmingly unequal with respect to life. Consequently, if a ball is produced, the odds are overwhelmingly in favor of a lifeless universe.

Going back to the lottery example, if 10 million tickets are purchased in California and 1 ticket is purchased in New York, and all those tickets are put into a box, it is virtually guaranteed that a California ticket will be pulled, even if the pulled ticket only had a 1 in 10 million chance to win.

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creationbydesign Says:

September 30, 2010 at 5:37 am
Scalia,
Good explanation.
The odds or probabilities are measured against a finite set of opportunities.
In your California example, the pulled ticket was a 1 in a million chance as an individual ticket. But when representing a class of ticket-types (California vs NY), it was virtually certain to be picked.
Alternatively, if a NY ticket was picked, it would have been an astoundingly rare chance occurence.
Lucky chance is really the only materialistic option for origin of life, and we can determine how improbable that chance was by observing the finite set of opportunities.

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 30, 2010 at 10:09 am
Scalia:

If intelligent creationism is right, then why do we find stratification of the fossil records??

Also, can Scalia also explain why chickens have the genes for teeth…but dont actually have teeth.

I’m sure creationism, sorry intelligent deisgn, doesn’t explain that.

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 30, 2010 at 10:12 am
Also, why do Whales have the genes to make legs…and why do humans have the genes to make a tail.

Please, dont try to make science fit the bible. All observations point to some sort of evolutionary process and not towards intelligent design.

And to those who want to see I.D taught is schools, yes, when you have evidence and peer review scientific papers…then it should be taught. But it doesnt have that, just the bible, which is counter intuitive to all that is logical.

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Scalia Says:

September 30, 2010 at 10:57 am
Michael, you really have a comprehension problem. For the last time: The topic of this thread is the Lottery Objection.

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Michael Roberts Says:

September 30, 2010 at 11:37 am
Scalia: Lets debate the entire issue. Why do you not want to proove me wrong??

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Scott Speight Says:

October 1, 2010 at 5:23 am
Michael,

The point Scalia was making by not replying is that if he answered your questions, it would de-rail this comment thread on the blog to be useless to those that wish to stick to the topic at hand.

As Scalia has stated, there are other blog entries relating to your question, and by the sounds of it, Scalia gets the updates via email and will happily debate that topic on the other thread – away from this one which is dealing with the LOTTERY ANALOGY which, Jason, is a good read so thanks.

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Arthur Says:

October 7, 2010 at 2:24 pm
I believe the standard answer to this “god of the lucky dice roll” argument is that it’s now accepted that our universe exists within a multiverse, just one of countless trillions of universes. So the odds are quite high that there would be a number of universes with forms of life. There is also some evidence from quantum physics that the universe’s properties change to fit life, not the other way around. (For example, particles bahve differently depending on whether humans are watching/recording them.)

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Scalia Says:

October 8, 2010 at 9:28 am
Hi, Arthur! You write,

I believe the standard answer to this “god of the lucky dice roll” argument is that it’s now accepted that our universe exists within a multiverse, just one of countless trillions of universes.

I don’t think your “god of the lucky dice roll” is an accurate depiction of our position. The odds for the chance formation of life comes from scientists, not theologians.

When you say the multiverse position is “now accepted,” what evidence is cited to demonstrate the existence of other universes? I’m familiar with the arguments here, but rather than make assumptions about what you believe, I prefer to ask you to stake that out.

The multiverse theory is a “possibility warrants refutation” argument. That is, the logical possibility of a multiverse warrants refutation of the argument against chance. That, however, is self-defeating because there are logical alternatives to a multiverse. If the argument against chance is defeated because of a possible alternative, then the alternative is defeated for the same reason.

We know that “a” universe exists, and insofar as we know, this is the only one. A multiverse is a possibility, but without evidence is remains a mere possibility; and to offer a mere possibility as a rational refutation cedes ground to theism (because theism is also possible).

Moreover, to offer a multiverse as a reply, you tacitly acknowledge the strength of the argument against chance. For if the argument against chance were not sound, there would be no need to offer a theoretical alternative. It would be enough to identify the inferential mistakes in the argument to defeat it.

I think the multiverse option should be a topic for another thread. Insofar as this thread is concerned, it appears you now affirm the following statement:

If there is and has been only one universe, the argument against chance appears strong.

If you do not affirm this, then please explain why you offer a multiverse as an alternative.

Regards.

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jasondulle Says:

October 8, 2010 at 1:31 pm
Arthur,

If by “accepted” you mean “popular,” I would agree.� But that’s about it.� The fact remains that there is no scientific evidence for a multiverse.� It finds its�theoretical basis is the equations of string theory (M-theory), but two things need to be pointed out.� First, string theory has no empirical evidence in its favor.� Second,�M-theory hasn’t even had all of its equations worked out, yet alone solved.� As the atheist Roger Penrose just recently noted, M theory shouldn’t even be called a theory because it has not risen to that level yet.� Right now it is speculation.� People are latching onto the idea of a multiverse, not because it has been established as a scientific fact, but because it is the only legitimate way to avoid the design inference based on the fine-tuning of the universe.� In other words, it has become the escape hatch from concluding that God exists based on the empirical data.� It has almost become the functional “God substitue” of atheism.� But at the end of the day, it is nothing more than an ad hoc hypothesis with no empirical support.

As for quantum physics, you have been mislead.� While the mathematics underlying quantum physics have been well-established, there are at least 10 different physical interpretations of the math, and quantum physicists will tell you that no one interpretation can be ascertained as the right one at this point.� Some interpretations see the quantum world as determinate, while others see it as indeterminate.� Of those that see it as determinate, there is a debate as to whether the indeterminacy is ontic or epistemic in nature (i.e. whether it is exists in reality or just reflects our inability to predict).� So one cannot say with any ring of authority or certainty that quantum entities actually behave differently when observed by observers.�

Jason

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Arthur Says:

October 11, 2010 at 6:50 am
Scalia,

You write:

The multiverse theory is a “possibility warrants refutation” argument. That is, the logical possibility of a multiverse warrants refutation of the argument against chance. That, however, is self-defeating because there are logical alternatives to a multiverse. If the argument against chance is defeated because of a possible alternative, then the alternative is defeated for the same reason.

I disagree. In order to make your “the odds say God did it” argument, you need to establish the odds. The cutting edge of science now affirms that there is a multiverse, and it does so for countless scientific reasons unrelated to the fine tuning argument. Placing God in the role of the currently unexplained always puts God in a bad place, as the amount of scientific knowledge is always expanding.

Scientists are concluding that there’s a multiverse from science, not to rebut religious arguments about fine tuning:

Don Page, an evangelical and theoretical physicist at the University of Alberta, gave a presentation entitled “Does God Love the Multiverse?”, explaining to a mostly religious audience how multiverse models arose out of key questions in particle physics, string theory, and cosmic inflation — not in order to avoid evidence of design in the cosmos. Page insists that undercutting one argument for god does not defeat the whole case for divine creation. “The multiverse is not an alternative to design by god,” he says. “God could have designed the whole thing.”

http://seedmagazine.com/content/article/the_multiverse_problem/

You also write:

Moreover, to offer a multiverse as a reply, you tacitly acknowledge the strength of the argument against chance. For if the argument against chance were not sound, there would be no need to offer a theoretical alternative. It would be enough to identify the inferential mistakes in the argument to defeat it.

The argument is unsound and I’ve proven it conclusively within this thread. In fact, you have admitted that while life as we know it may appear “impossible” based on the odds, every other possible result is equally “impossible.” By acknowledging that point, I have to believe that at some level you realize the fine tuning argument is untenable.

The fact that the fine tuning argument is untenable for scientific reasons, in addition to logical reasons, doesn’t make it stronger – it makes it weaker.

Arthur

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Scalia Says:

October 11, 2010 at 10:03 am
Arthur writes,

In order to make your “the odds say God did it” argument, you need to establish the odds.

Both Jason and I have already given this to you. Robert Penrose, among others, isn’t a Pentecostal evangelist.

The cutting edge of science now affirms that there is a multiverse, and it does so for countless scientific reasons unrelated to the fine tuning argument.

Again, Arthur, I ask for the evidence. You keep making these claims without providing evidence. If you have empirical evidence of a multiverse, let’s see it.

Placing God in the role of the currently unexplained always puts God in a bad place, as the amount of scientific knowledge is always expanding.

So far, nobody is putting “God” anywhere. Jason did not once mention God in his initial post. The word “God” appears in this thread 24 times (so far). The only time God has been mentioned by either Jason or me (excepting this post) was when Jason opined the multiverse was concocted to avoid theistic implications (Post 41).

This thread merely examines the chance hypothesis with respect to the lottery objection and finds it wanting. If chance is not an adequate explanation for the origin of life, there appear to be only two remaining options: necessity or design. ID, at this point, doesn’t posit God as the designer. It is merely the process of categorical elimination based upon the evidence. If you either have a quarter or a dime in your pocket, and we’ve eliminated the possibility have have a dime, then it follows there is a quarter in your pocket. Consequently, of the three logical options for the origin of life (necessity, chance, design), if necessity and chance are eliminated, design is the only option.

Scientists are concluding that there’s a multiverse from science, not to rebut religious arguments about fine tuning:

Again, please provide us with the evidence for this.

The article you’ve linked says the following:

Because they’re unobservable, multiverse theories are also untestable, blurring the line between science and speculation and making them controversial in the scientific community. Princeton University physicist Paul Steinhardt has called the multiverse “a dangerous idea that I am simply unwilling to contemplate.”

Arthur, please tell me how science “concludes” a multiverse if it is untestable?

The article further cites the “growing credibility” of a multiverse, but it fails to provide evidence why that is so. According to unbelievers, a theory that is empirically untestable is not science. If that is the case, then it appears the multiverse isn’t science. As Tim Folger wrote in Discover Magazine (which Jason had already quoted within a previous thread:

The idea is controversial. Critics say it doesn’t even qualify as a scientific theory because the existence of other universes cannot be proved or disproved. Advocates argue that, like it or not, the multiverse may well be the only viable non religious explanation for what is often called the “fine-tuning problem”-the baffling observation that the laws of the universe seem custom-tailored to favor the emergence of life.

The argument is unsound and I’ve proven it conclusively within this thread.That is your opinion. I respectfully disagree. I think the back-and-forth conclusively demonstrates otherwise. No need to repeat it here.

In fact, you have admitted that while life as we know it may appear “impossible” based on the odds, every other possible result is equally “impossible.” By acknowledging that point, I have to believe that at some level you realize the fine tuning argument is untenable.

After all this time you still don’t understand our argument.

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Scalia Says:

October 11, 2010 at 10:23 am
One more thing. You (Arthur) say,

The argument is unsound and I’ve proven it conclusively within this thread.

Do you not recall you were the one that brought up the multiverse? This is what you said in Post 39:

I believe the standard answer to this “god of the lucky dice roll” argument is that it’s now accepted that our universe exists within a multiverse, just one of countless trillions of universes.

You said this in reply to the California-New York lottery analogy I offered. You produced the multiverse to counter the vastly improbable notion that chance produced life in our universe. If you had already “proven” your case, a multiverse is superfluous. The fact you appealed to it demonstrates a tacit acknowledgement of the strength of our argument. If it were not persuasive, no such appeal was needed.

If you counter that you merely offered it to augment your argument, then your words, “I believe the standard answer [multiverse],” are incorrect. If the standard answer is a multiverse, then the absence of a multiverse leaves one without a “standard” answer to the argument against chance.

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Arthur Says:

October 11, 2010 at 1:38 pm
Scalia,

You write:

You produced the multiverse to counter the vastly improbable notion that chance produced life in our universe. If you had already “proven” your case, a multiverse is superfluous. The fact you appealed to it demonstrates a tacit acknowledgement of the strength of our argument. If it were not persuasive, no such appeal was needed.

I disagree. And frankly I’m surprised that you’d even make such a claim. That line of reasoning – if you were to apply it consistently – would lead you to all sorts of error, and I won’t speculate whether or not it has. I just thought it was important to note that the argument about the odds of life is akin to arguing about the properties of phlogiston; it’s a fun exercise but we should remember that current science recognizes that phlogiston does not exist.

Out of an abundance of charity, I will assume that you didn’t understand my argument on the point of the specialness of life. I will offer another person’s formulation of the same idea:

To bring out the point about special kinds of universe, consider an analogy. Suppose ten dice are rolled and we count the sum of them that comes up. It will be a number from 10 through 60. I want to maintain that whatever number it turns out to be, that number will not only be unlikely to have come up but it will have at least one unique and interesting property, not possessed by any of the other fifty numbers. For example, if it is, say, 25, then that number would be the only perfect square which is itself the sum of two squares (9 & 16) and is also the only odd number that is the square of its last digit. The number 27 is the only perfect cube of all of them. The number 28 is the only one that is the sum of all its divisors smaller than itself (1, 2, 4, 7, 14). The number 30 is the largest number X such that all numbers smaller than X with no divisor in common with X (other than 1) are themselves prime numbers. The number 32 is the smallest power of 2 such that the next number after it is not a prime (since the next number after 16 is a prime). The number 36 is the only one that is the product of two squares (4 & 9) and is the only even number that is the square of its last digit. The number 11 is the smallest palindromic number and 55 is the largest. The number 59 is the largest prime number. And 60 is that number which can be factored in more ways than any smaller number. I claim that every number from 10 through 60 has at least one unique and interesting property, especially if non-mathematical properties are included (such as 26 = the number of letters in the English alphabet; 29 = the number of days during February in a leap year; 31 = the most points that can be scored in a hand of cribbage, and so on). In light of this fact, no matter what number comes up as the sum of the ten dice, we could say, “How amazing: not only is that number highly unlikely to have come up but it is the only number such that…” and proceed to specify the interesting property or properties uniquely possessed by that number. Then we could ask: “What is the explanation for the fact that that number came up rather than some other number?” The correct answer is that it is just a coincidence (or brute fact) that that number came up, and whatever number had come up, it would have been unlikely to have done so and, further, there would have been some interesting property or properties possessed only by that number. It may be the same with our universe. It is simply a brute fact that it has the laws and physical constants that it has. And although it may be true that no other conceivable universe, with different laws and constants, would have permitted the development of life as we know it, whatever universe might have come about, it would have had some other unique feature(s) at least as interesting as the property of permitting life as we know it. From this perspective, there is NOTHING SPECIAL about our universe, and that makes hypothesis B a perfectly appropriate explanation for why it has the laws and constants that it actually does have.

http://www.infidels.org/library/modern/theodore_drange/tuning.html

Arthur

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Scalia Says:

October 11, 2010 at 2:58 pm
Wow. All of that to say something everybody here who disagrees with you has already affirmed?? We have time and again affirmed that ANY ticket picked in a lottery of millions has a one in millions of a chance to win. How many times does that have to be repeated?

And frankly I’m surprised that you’d even make such a claim.

Why would you be surprised? By your own words you brought up the multiverse SPECULATION to counter our argument. As I pointed out, speculative theories (without empirical support) are self-defeating. We are still waiting for your empirical evidence of a multiverse. The only reason you offer a multiverse is it negates the overwhelming odds against the chance formation of life. If you’re comfortable with the “brute fact” of life, let’s dispense with a speculative multiverse.

Out of an abundance of charity, I will assume that you didn’t understand my argument on the point of the specialness of life.

While I appreciate all the charity I can get, it’s not necessary here. As I stated, both Jason and I have both affirmed the odds of any lottery ticket (dice roll, if you will). Since you still appear unable to understand why this appeal fails, there’s no point in continuing the dialog. No amount of charity will help you get it if you haven’t gotten it by now.

If you really understand our rebuttal to what you’ve been repeating over and over (whether or not you agree), please restate it. Perhaps we’ll then be able to identify just where this discussion is bogging down.

Hint: It’s not a question of number, it’s a question of classification.

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creationbydesign Says:

October 11, 2010 at 6:00 pm
Right, just to pile on one more time …

If you’re not going to bother to try to predict what number is going to come up on the dice before you roll — then the odds that “whatever number” will appear are 1 out of 1. It’s 100% certain that some number will appear.

So, the analogy fails right there. We’re not looking at “some number” but ordered sequences of numbers that are determined before the roll of the dice.

The fine-tuning argument is irrefutable. That’s why we have claims about a multiverse.

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jasondulle Says:

December 10, 2010 at 4:53 pm
Michael Roberts,

I did not see some of the posts you had written, but found them while doing some clean-up work on the blog. I can’t address them all, but I do want to address comment #19.

You write, “1. I managed to get Jason to move the goal posts by admitting that intelligent design is probably best suited to being called Sub-Optimal design. I then challenged him on why God would make anything sub-optimal…?” No, you got me to say that sub-optimality is necessary given the restraints and purposes of designing. There is a difference between sub-optimality and flawed.

You write, “Proteins form all the time in nature, ask any scientist. They form in our bodies all the time via random processes…so the foundations for the probabiltiy are fundamentally wrong.” I am talking about new proteins, not existing proteins. And there is no empirical evidence of new proteins forming by chance. Sometimes an existing protein will get made twice because of an copy error in the DNA, but this just produces two of the same thing.

“Right, the number of seconds since the big bang is 432,329,886,000,000,000, which is 4.32^18. NOT 10^16. The number of particle interactions per second is not 10^43, from WMAP is more likely to be 10^8000. The number of particles he has quoted is for hydrogen only, which makes up 73% of normal matter in the Universe. We have to make our calculation from quarks, which leaves (10^80)^3. Not forgetting electrons and photons. The figure is now growing. The amount of photons is mindblowing. My estimate is 10^3170000000000. Much bigger than 10^41000 im sure youll agree.”

If you convert 4/32^18 into the notation that Demski is using, it would be 10^17. Even assuming Dembski is wrong by a factor of 1, this doesn’t put a dent in the argument. Your other two calculations, however, would. Do you have citations for your figures? I have seen multiple references to the number of particles in the universe, and all have been right around 10^80. I should also note that to my knowledge, Dembski’s figure for the total number of events since the Big Bang is the most liberal figure out there. Others give lower numbers.

I would love to comment on all of your remarks about ID, the evidence for it, the motivation for it, etc., but it requires more writing than I have time for right now. I will only say that ID does not require religious presuppositions, even if it has religious implications. Indeed, if you listen to ID theorists, the evidence they present is based on the scientific data and reasoning. Ironically, it’s the detractors of ID who often resort to philosophical and theological arguments in their attempt to show that ID is wrong.

Jason

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The origin of life is not a lottery II « Theosophical Ruminations Says:

December 31, 2010 at 3:39 pm
[…] under Apologetics, Evolution, Intelligent Design, Science Leave a Comment In a previous post I addressed the “lottery” objection to the probabilistic argument against a naturalistic origin […]

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Not a Chance: Why Life Requires a Designer | Theo-sophical Ruminations Says:

May 6, 2020 at 9:35 pm
[…] The origin of life is not a lottery […]

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