An Inordinate Desire for Certainty

All of us would like to have certainty regarding knowledge, and yet, certainty is rarely afforded to us. Most of what we believe to be true, we believe on the basis of probabilities. Unfortunately, many people, being too desirous of certainty, are led in one of two bad directions: skepticism, dogmatism.

An inordinate desire for certainty leads some down the skeptics’ road, always doubting everything and never willing to make a knowledge claim that falls short of certainty (or something very close). For others, their desire for certainty leads them down the road of dogmatism, closed-mindedness, and intellectual dishonesty. In their quest for certainty, they are unwilling to entertain any ideas that would call their current beliefs into question. They respond vehemently against anyone who holds to a view contrary to their own. They argue, not to discover truth, but to defend their dogmatic certainty.

While the desire for certainty is understandable, we cannot allow it to lead us in either of these directions. We must be willing to take a position based on the evidence we have, while recognizing that we could be mistaken. We also need to be willing to consider other evidence and other points of view, and be willing to change our opinions if the evidence warrants it. In many cases, we should be less dogmatic, acknowledging the strengths and weaknesses of our view. For example, I hold to Premillennialism, but I’m not anywhere near certain that it’s true. As a percentage, I’m only ~65% convinced that it is true. That’s enough for me to claim it as my view, but not enough for me to be dogmatic about it. While I would love to have certainty regarding all of my beliefs, certainty is rarely afforded to us. In light of that, we need to do our best to form our opinions based on the evidence available to us, but always be open to revising our opinions if the evidence warrants it.

Bob Mason Says:

May 21, 2020 at 5:16 am

Yes, well said. I would liken it to a search for the peace that comes from knowing absolute truth, but failing to understand that, with the exception of linear algebra, absolute truth doesn’t exist.

LikeLike

Scalia Says:

May 21, 2020 at 11:24 am

Well, I don’t quite know what to make of this post. It seems that you are saying that if you’re not 100% certain of something, then you shouldn’t be dogmatic about it. But it also appears that you’re arguing against being 100% certain of something—something I assume you’re also not 100% certain about (in which case your point is less clear).

I agree that if you’re not certain, then don’t be certain about it. But I also believe that certainty can be found.

How do you define “inordinate”? Can you provide examples of excessive certainty? I think that even if a person is certain of h/er particular beliefs, s/he should be willing to hear other opinions and patiently argue why different beliefs are false. A person who refuses to listen to others doesn’t have a certainty problem; s/he has a social problem.

derekmathias Says:

May 21, 2020 at 1:29 pm

Like any science-minded person, I’m perfectly fine with uncertainty. Every single theory in science is provisional to the next piece of evidence that comes along, so no explanation is ever considered certain (that’s why theories are technically “accepted” in science, not “believed”). When people claim certainty, skepticism is a very good thing–it’s the first step in critical thinking. “I don’t know” is a perfectly valid statement to make in the face of a lack of evidence for something.

Theosophical Ruminator Says:

May 22, 2020 at 4:05 pm

Scalia,

I am using “certainty” in the philosophical sense of incapable of being wrong, not in the colloquial sense of “confidence.” There are only a few things for which we can be certain in the philosophical sense: our existence, mathematical truths, logical truths, and things that are true by definition. That doesn’t mean we have to be skeptical about everything else. It just means that everything else we believe, we believe with varying levels of probability. That doesn’t mean we can’t say we know it. The idea that we can’t claim to know something unless we are certain of it is absurd (that’s along the lines of the skeptic’s mistake). I absolutely think it’s possible to be confident that we are right about a good number of things assuming that we (1) have researched all relevant views on the matter, (2) have reviewed the evidence for and against our view, and (3) deem the evidence for our view to be very high and the evidence for alternative views to be very low. Indeed, on some matters, I think it’s possible for us to believe that it’s near impossible for us to be wrong. As such, we can have a very high degree of confidence that we are right.

My concern is not that people think they are right. Everyone thinks they are right about what they believe, even if they recognize that they could be wrong and even if they do not have a high degree of confidence that they are right. My concern isn’t even that people have a desire for certainty. I have a desire for certainty. My concern is that an inordinate desire for certainty often leads people to a needless skepticism or closed-mindedness.

I see this happening all the time. Person A encounters person B and learns that B holds to a different position. Rather than first seeking to understand B’s view and the reasons B holds that view, A immediately goes on the attack to show why B is wrong and A is right. I’ve done this myself, many times, unfortunately. I think this response often stems from an inordinate desire for certainty. Such a person has such a strong need to feel certainty regarding his beliefs that he deems any contrary beliefs as a threat rather than as an opportunity to learn. I’m concerned that people are more desirous of certainty than they are of the truth. Obviously, it makes us uncomfortable to consider the fact that we may be wrong about something, particularly if it is regarding a cherished belief or a belief that is essential to belonging to one’s social group. Nobody likes to be wrong. But I would rather go through the pain of uncertainty for a while than I avoid it, if experiencing uncertainty is a necessary step toward eliminating false beliefs and learning more truth. The process may lead one to change their mind, or not. Perhaps the exchange will strengthen their current belief. I’m just concerned that people are being closed-minded and dogmatic simply because they fear losing their sense of certainty.

What is an “inordinate” amount of desire for certainty? If desires came in standard units, perhaps I could tell you. Unfortunately, it doesn’t. It’s subjective. I would simply say that an inordinate desire of certainty is any level of desire that leads one to be intellectual dishonest for the sake of preserving their sense of certainty.

May 22, 2020 at 7:17 pm

Bro. Jason, I agree with most of your explanation and said as much in my initial reply. However, you write:

I would simply say that an inordinate desire of certainty is any level of desire that leads one to be intellectual dishonest for the sake of preserving their sense of certainty.

I don’t see a causal connection here. There are dishonest skeptics, dishonest rationalists, dishonest atheists and dishonest theists. It’s not the desire for certainty, however inordinate, that causes intellectual dishonesty. That’s why I said that a person who refuses to listen doesn’t have a certainty problem; s/he has a social problem. Similarly, a person who argues dishonestly has more issues with pride and insecurity than s/he does with certainty.

Certainty | Theo-sophical Ruminations Says:

November 16, 2020 at 5:07 pm

[…] to have knowledge, and while certainty is not required for everything we believe, and while an inordinate desire for certainty can be bad, the basic desire itself is natural, good, and obtainable in some […]

Thinking to Believe