If you had to guess, how many white people would you say have been killed by the police since the beginning of 2020? Based on media coverage alone, you might think it is fewer than five, or perhaps even zero. Now, how many black people would you guess have been killed by police during the same time period? Thousands? Hundreds?

Perceptions vs. Statistics

While most people can name several black people that have been killed by police since 2020, very few could name even a single white person who was killed. Why is that? It’s not for lack of white blood. Per the Washington Post’s Fatal Force database, cops have killed 580 white people since last year, compared to 314 black people. How many of those were unarmed? Thirty white people and 22 black people.[1]

If you’re not wondering why all of these unarmed white men killed by the police didn’t make national news, you should be. The media is pushing a particular narrative, namely that the police are racist and targeting black people. To that end, they choose only to feature the stories that fit (or are forced to fit) that narrative, and ignore those that don’t. Unfortunately, this media bias is causing Americans to think cops are nilly-willy gunning down black people simply because they are black. The narrative is that policing is systemically racist.

This is a myth. It’s not backed up by the data. That’s not to say there are no bad cops, or racist cops, or unjustified shootings of black people. Some people are racist, and surely some of those people are in the police force. However, these are examples of individual racism rather than systemic racism. For policing as an institution to be racist, one would need to point to specific police policies that prima facie discriminate against a particular race.

There are also unjustified shootings, and these need to be prosecuted to the fullest extent. But such events are few in number, dwarfed by the number of justified killings, and not limited to one race. And yet, people ignore these in favor of a false narrative that the police are systemically racist, and law-abiding black people need to fear the police.

Police Shootings Statistics

Emotions run high regarding this issue, and too often, anecdotal data determines what we think and how we feel about this issue. That’s why we need to know the facts – so we can put everything into perspective. First, it’s not true that cops are targeting black people.

  • Cops kill those who pose a lethal threat, regardless of their race. According to a study of 650+ police departments, “the vast majority – between 90% and 95% – of the civilians shot by officers were actively attacking police or other citizens when they were shot. Ninety percent also were armed with a weapon when they were shot.”[2] There are virtually no cases of cops killing unarmed, compliant citizens, regardless of race. In almost every situation, the person gets shot because they are resisting arrest and posing a lethal threat to the cops.
  • Black men are more likely to kill cops. According to the FBI, ~50 cops are killed in the line of duty each year. Depending on the year, 31-42% of those cops are killed by a black man, despite the fact that black people only represent 13% of the population.[3],[4] If black men are disproportionately responsible for killing cops, that means black men are disproportionally responsible for attacking cops, and thus we would expect them to be disproportionately shot/killed by the cops as well.
  • A cop is 18.5 times more likely to be killed by a black man than an unarmed black man is to be killed by a cop.[5]

Explaining the Racial Disparity

One might say, “Yes, but you’re ignoring the fact that black people are disproportionately killed by police compared to white people.” It is true that the number of black people killed by police is disproportionate to their population. Approximately 1 out of every 1000 black men is killed by the police compared to 1 out of every 2500 white men.[6] However, is this disparity best explained by systemic racism, or by something else?

Many think it’s just obvious that racism is to blame. To see why this conclusion is premature, let’s consider the sex of those who are killed by the police. Cops disproportionately kill males. For every female killed by a police officer, 17 males are killed. Does anyone think this gender disparity is due to systemic sexism among the police? No. We know, by both experience and statistics, that male behavior is markedly different from female behavior. Males have a much higher propensity toward violence and crime than their female counterparts. If we can acknowledge that the reason men are 17 times more likely than women to be killed by cops is due to their behavior rather than their gender, isn’t it possible that black men are killed at a higher rate than other races due to their behavior rather than their race? If the sexes to not behave the same, why think all races do?

Cops don’t generally kill people. There are 700,000 cops in the U.S. and they are responsible for killing ~1000 civilians each year. That means only 0.14% of cops will kill a civilian in any given year. Cops interact with the public more than 61 million times annually[7] and only ~1000 of those end up in a fatality. That means just 0.0016% of police interactions result in civilian fatalities. Given how unlikely it is that any interaction with a cop would result in death, what best explains why cops kill black people at a higher rate than white people?

It’s unlikely to be explained by racism since cops kill whites at a higher rate than Asians.[8] If police are shooting people based on racist attitudes against non-whites, we would expect Asians to be killed at higher rates than whites. So if racism is motivating these shootings, cops are incompetent racists!

The data highly suggests that black people are disproportionately arrested by police and killed by police for the simple fact that blacks commit higher rates of crime per capita compared to other races. For example, 2018 crime data shows that blacks committed 60% of all robberies and 53% of all murders despite constituting just 13% of the population.[9] Blacks are more than twice as likely to commit multiple acts of violent crime compared to whites (22.4% vs. 10%).[10] Whites, Asians, and Hispanics are all underrepresented in the number of non-fatal violent crimes, serious non-fatal crimes, rape/sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault compared to their general population. Blacks, however, are overrepresented in every category (28.9%, 35.9%, 22.1%, 51.1%, 33.9%, and 23.3% respectively).[11]

Racist Over-policing?

Some will object that these statistics are skewed due to racist policing. They say whites commit the same amount of crime as blacks, but whites get away with crime more often because the cops over-police black neighborhoods and under-police white neighborhoods. While one might plausibly argue that this is true for particular types of crime, in general, this is not true, as demonstrated by the homicide rate. Cops must respond to all homicides, whether they are in black, brown, or white neighborhoods. We’ve already determined that black people are responsible for 53% of these homicides despite only constituting 13% of the population. Are we to believe that while black people commit murder at a rate that is three times higher than their population, they don’t commit lesser crimes at a higher rate as well? Anyone who is willing to murder is surely likely to commit lesser crimes as well. I’ve never met a moral murderer who is willing to kill people, but not willing to steal.

Cops focus their attention on where crime is being committed. If more crime is being committed in black communities, police will focus their attention on black communities. The police arrest black people at a disproportionate rate because black people are committing a disproportionate percentage of the crime. If blacks are engaged in a disproportionate percentage of crime, and blacks are responsible for a disproportionate percentage of cop killings, we should fully expect for blacks to constitute a disproportionate number of those who get killed by the police. They are not getting killed because of their race, but because of their behavior. As already noted, 90% are armed and 90-95% are attacking the police when they are shot.

Some will still object that white cops are more likely to kill a black person than a white person. Studies, however, have shown that the opposite is true. White cops are less likely to shoot a black man than a white man. Michigan State University and the University of Maryland studied 917 fatal cop shootings in 2015 from 650+ police departments.[12] They found that white cops were less likely to kill black suspects than black and Latino officers:

“Our data show that the rate of crime by each racial group correlates with the likelihood of citizens from that racial group being shot. If you live in a county that has a lot of white people committing crimes, white people are more likely to be shot. If you live in a county that has a lot of black people committing crimes, black people are more likely to be shot. It is the best predictor we have of fatal police shootings.

We find no evidence of anti-Black or anti-Hispanic disparities across shootings, and White officers are not more likely to shoot minority civilians than non-White officers. Instead, race-specific crime strongly predicts civilian race.”

The Department of Justice did a study in Philadelphia using 2015 data.[13] They found that black officers were 67% more likely, and Hispanic officers were 145% more likely than white officers to mistakenly shoot an unarmed black suspect.

Race and Crime among Citizens

I’ve been focusing on cop shootings, but the story is the same at the level of citizens. Statistically speaking, black people do not need to fear violence from the hands of white people. Most black people are killed by other black people. In 2018, blacks were responsible for 89% of all black homicides and 15.5% of all white homicides. In contrast, whites were responsible for 80% of white homicides and 8% of black homicides.[14] This means a black person is 11x more likely to be killed by a fellow black person than a white person.[15] It also means whites are 2x more likely to be killed by blacks than blacks are to be killed by whites.[16] The same is true of violent crime. White people are 9x more likely to be the victim of a violent crime committed by a black person than a black person is to be a victim of a violent crime perpetrated by a white person (547,948 incidences vs. 59,778).[17]

None of this is to say that all black people are bad, or that all white people are good. The overwhelming majority of people are good, regardless of their race. But there are bad apples of every race, and right now, black people have a higher percentage of bad apples in their communities compared to the other races. Blacks are responsible for a disproportionate percentage of crime in this country, including race-on-race crime. The problem, then, is not the police, but elements of black culture that are producing (mostly) men who are given to higher rates of crime and violence. It gives me no pleasure to report this fact, but it remains a fact nonetheless. We can’t deny it simply because we don’t like it.

Conclusion

The question is not whether police are killing a disproportionate number of black people, but why they are doing so. The evidence points away from systemic racism and to personal behavior. Cops kill black people at higher rates than white people for the same reason cops kill white people at higher rates than Asian people: personal behavior. Cops target those who commit crime, and the fact of the matter is that crime rates are not the same between races. If black people choose to commit a disproportionate amount of crime, they will be disproportionately represented in arrests, incarcerations, and cop shootings. The police ought not to be blamed for this.

Does racism still exist in this country? Yes, in the hearts of some individuals, but not in any systemic way. Are some cops racist? Yes, but policing itself is not systemically racist. We ought to condemn any acts of discrimination or racism among the police, but we should not conclude that policing itself is racist due to the fact that police arrest and shoot a disproportionate number of black people. The disparity is not caused by personal or systemic racism, but the personal behavior of black citizens. There is no reason for black people to fear white people or cops. Law-abiding citizens who are respectful toward the police and comply with police commands do not get shot by the police, no matter what race they are.

The purpose of this post is not to point fingers or blame, but to let the facts shape our narrative rather than the biased media, race-baiting politicians, or even our personal experience. If the evidence supported the idea that policing is systemically racist, I would be the first to condemn it and join those who are advocating for change. That’s not the situation, however. The facts are clear.

Remember, racism must be proven, not assumed.

 

__________________

[1]Available from https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/investigations/police-shootings-database/; accessed 29 April 2021.

[2]David J. Johnson, Trevor Tress, Nicole Burkel, Carley Taylor, and Joseph Cesario, “Officer characteristics and racial disparities in fatal officer-involved shootings,” in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published 22 July 2019; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903856116; available from https://www.pnas.org/content/116/32/15877; Internet; accessed 28 April 2021. Heather Mac Donald reports on this in “There Is No Epidemic of Racist Police Shootings”; available at https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/07/white-cops-dont-commit-more-shootings/; Internet; accessed 18 April 2021.

[3]FBI, “2019 Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted”; available from https://ucr.fbi.gov/leoka/2019/topic-pages/officers-feloniously-killed; Internet; accessed 15 May 2021.

[4]FBI, “2019 Law Enforcement Officers Killed and Assaulted”; available from https://ucr.fbi.gov/leoka/2019/topic-pages/officers-feloniously-killed; Internet; accessed 15 May 2021.

[5]Cited by Heather Mac Donald, “The Myth of Systemic Police Racism”; available from https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-myth-of-systemic-police-racism-11591119883; Internet; accessed 12 June 2020.

[6]Frank Edwards, Hedwig Lee, and Michael Esposito, “Risk of being killed by police use of force in the United States by age, race–ethnicity, and sex”, https://www.pnas.org/content/116/34/16793.

[7]Bureau of Justice Statistics, “Contacts between Police and the Public, 2018”; available from https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=7167; Internet; accessed 7 May 2021.

[8]According to https://mappingpoliceviolence.org/ as of May 7, 2021, there have been 1478 police killings since 2020. Only 12 Asians have been killed, compared to 320 blacks and 523 whites. That means Asians only constitute less than 1% (0.008%) of police shootings, and yet they represent ~6% of the general population. Even if we remove the “unknown” race shootings (375), Asians would still only constitute 1% of cop shootings.

[9]Cited by Heather Mac Donald, “The Myth of Systemic Police Racism”; available from https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-myth-of-systemic-police-racism-11591119883; Internet; accessed 12 June 2020.

[10]13.8% of Hispanics and 10.1% of Asians are repeat offenders. See Allen J. Beck with the U.S. Department of Justice, “Race and Ethnicity of Violent Crime Offenders and Arrestees, 2018”; available from https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/revcoa18.pdf; Internet; accessed 7 May 2021.

[11]Allen J. Beck with the U.S. Department of Justice, “Race and Ethnicity of Violent Crime Offenders and Arrestees, 2018”; available from https://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/revcoa18.pdf; Internet; accessed 7 May 2021.

[12]David J. Johnson, Trevor Tress, Nicole Burkel, Carley Taylor, and Joseph Cesario, “Officer characteristics and racial disparities in fatal officer-involved shootings,” in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, published 22 July 2019; https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903856116; available from https://www.pnas.org/content/116/32/15877; Internet; accessed 28 April 2021. Heather Mac Donald reports on this in “There Is No Epidemic of Racist Police Shootings”; available at https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/07/white-cops-dont-commit-more-shootings/; Internet; accessed 18 April 2021.

[13]Department of Justice, “Department of Justice Releases Report on Philadelphia Police Department’s Use of Deadly Force”; available from https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/department-justice-releases-report-philadelphia-police-departments-use-deadly-force; Internet; accessed 18 April 2021.

[14]FBI data for 2018. “2018 Crime in the United States”, table 6; available from https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/expanded-homicide; Internet; accessed 17 June 2020.

[15]2018 FBI statistics. See “2018 Crime in the United States,” expanded homicide data table 6, available from https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/tables/expanded-homicide-data-table-6.xls; Internet; accessed 15 June 2020.

[16]FBI data for 2018. “2018 Crime in the United States”, table 6; available from https://ucr.fbi.gov/crime-in-the-u.s/2018/crime-in-the-u.s.-2018/topic-pages/expanded-homicide; Internet; accessed 17 June 2020.

[17]Bureau of Justice Statistics, “National Crime Victimization Survey, 2018,” table 14; available from https://www.bjs.gov/index.cfm?ty=pbdetail&iid=6686; Internet; accessed 11 June 2020.